CASCI Composite Signals Hot AI Server Growth
The Culpium AI Supply Chain Index (CASCI) climbed 0.2pts in March to 135.7 points
CASCI Composite March 2026 Highlights:
135.7 points, the highest on record
+0.2pts for the 7th month of growth, accelerating from +0.1pts in February
The CASCI cycle is in its 19th month of positive territory (strong or firm)
Upstream:
Upstream suppliers in semiconductors, materials, and passive components saw the largest jump in growth among all tiers of the supply chain.
This tier still lags the growth levels seen in mid- and downstream.
New capacity is coming online as strong growth among module and final-assembly manufacturers continues to drive demand.
Mid-stream:
Revenue data for companies in the middle of the supply chain shows the strongest growth among all tiers.
This growth rate fell in March, as module makers, mechanical suppliers in racks, draws, & fittings, and cooling systems manufacturers saw their downstream clients absorb inventory while facing shortages from upstream.
March was the 5th month of moderating growth after a brief peak in September and October 2025.
Downstream:
Companies focused on system integration and final assembly of AI servers saw continued strong growth in March, although this growth rate has been flat over the past three months after a solid 4Q 2025.
New supply coming from upstream has helped this growth rate stay high, but tightness in both supply for, and orders of, new products puts this tier in wait-and-see mode.
Capacity:
The business of supplying equipment and constructing facilities remains strong.
Revenue here is more a reflection of contract or phase completion, than actual new sales or orders, so caution is warranted when viewing this tier.
That said, recent data shows this tier has accelerated from a more neutral period experienced in the last half of 2025, indicating that more production capacity is coming online soon.
CASCI is a weighted index tracking revenue of Taiwanese companies in the AI compute supply chain. Taiwanese companies make up the majority of upstream, mid-stream, and downstream of AI server manufacturing.
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CASCI is published monthly by Culpium as a service to readers.
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